Air freight sector poised for an unseasonal summer: DHL

Global air cargo demand remained solid in May 2024 due to an e-commerce boom out of China and a nine percent year-on-year increase compared to May last year was observed according to he DHL Air Freight State of the Industry report.

“Rising e-commerce demand and a modal shift from ocean to air freight due to ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to boost air volumes,” it reads.

The DHL Air Freight State of the Industry is a monthly report by DHL Global Forwarding which tracks and analyses the latest developments of the global air freight market.

About what to expect from 2024 Q3, it reads, “Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic expected to remain high despite improved container shipping reliability and adaptations to longer transit times. Sustained boost in air cargo demand expected as Chinese e-retailers seek US market expansion.”

Meanwhile it reports that global air cargo capacity is at plus 11 percent year-on-year versus May 2023, almost exclusively driven by passenger belly cargo increase.

“Capacity remains stable across most regions, except for specific trade lanes where high demand is causing some constraints. Overall capacity from Asia to US, EU and MEA remains tight,” it reads.

The rport also noted that airfreight capacity demand expected to ease around Indian subcontinent amid Red Sea disruption, as businesses adapt to longer lead times.

“Airlines expand summer schedules with additional passenger aircraft, possibly reducing dynamic load factor,” it also reads.

About the rates, it repoorted that global air cargo spot rate sees first YoY increase in April since Aug’22, amid geopolitical disruptions and strong e-commerce demand.

“Shippers are preferring long-term contracts for stability, competitive rates and reliable operational performance,” it informs.

It pointed out that cargo yields in India, China, and Southeast Asia remains high, leading to re-positioned flights for airlines to capitalize on these opportunities.

It reads, “Rates from Dubai are higher compared to same period last year, as strong demand due disruptions to container shipping continue to stimulate air cargo demand. • Dubai-Europe volumes remain at more than twice their level this time last year, boosted by sea-air tonnages.”

Looking into the future it expects Red Sea conflicts to prolong congestion at many central seaports around the world, impacting air cargo market and rates.

It also reads, “High demand for transporting materials to France ahead of summer Olympics could tighten space. Canada anticipates ocean strikes, potentially increasing airfreight demand.”