Air cargo tonnages up 13% in first two months of 2024: WorldACD
Globally, average rates of $2.27 per kilo in week nine are 16% below their levels this time last year
Worldwide air cargo demand was up by 13 percent in the first two months of this year compared with the equivalent period last year with demand continuing to surge from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins and tonnages recovering from the normal Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonal dip, according to the latest update from WorldACD Market Data.
"Preliminary figures for February indicate that air cargo tonnages were up eight percent year on year. Correcting for the extra day in February this year, the first 28 days of February were still up by four percent compared with February 2023, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data."
That follows +17 percent tonnages in January, based on revised figures from WorldACD, the update added. "But the variation in the timing of LNY each year – coming three weeks later this year on February 10 compared with January 22 last year – tend to make single-month comparisons complicated in the first two months with combined two-month comparisons usually more meaningful. Combined figures for January and February 2024 show a 13 percent increase in tonnages this year compared with the equivalent two-month period last year or +11 percent if the extra leap-year day is excluded."
Two-week comparisons
Expanding the comparison period to two weeks, tonnages in weeks eight and nine are up by seven percent compared with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), driven mainly by a post-LNY rebound in demand from Asia Pacific where tonnages were up by 15 percent, the update added.
"Other intercontinental routes seeing strong rebounds in tonnages, on a 2Wo2W basis, included inbound traffic to Asia Pacific from Europe (+21 percent), from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (+16 percent) and from North America (up eight percent)."
YoY moves
Tonnages from origin region Middle East & South Asia (MESA) remain up significantly, YoY, in weeks eight and nine (+22 percent) as key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs continue to record a surge in tonnages, linked to the disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea. Given the current worsening situation in the Red Sea, it is likely that this trend – of elevated demand for Asia-Europe sea-air services and tonnages ex-MESA – will continue to some extent.
Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo and Bangkok have experienced exceptionally high air cargo demand. Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic in week nine remains at more than double (+154 percent) its level this time last year. Week-on-week (WoW), tonnages in week 9 are 23 percent below their level in week eight, suggesting a possible softening in demand, the update added.
Pricing perspective
Rates ex-Colombo are up significantly (36 percent in week nine), YoY, whereas they are down ex-Dubai (three percent) and ex-Bangkok (13 percent).
Globally, average rates of $2.27 per kilo in week nine are 16 percent below their levels this time last year with rates ex-Europe and ex-North America down by 29 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Rates ex-MESA are up by 13 percent YoY – the only origin region to record increased pricing.
Average global rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (+27 percent compared to February 2019). Capacity remains up on last year’s levels (nine percent), most notably ex-Asia Pacific (+14 percent) and ex-Central & South America (+14 percent).
