Air cargo tonnages drop due to growing global uncertainty

The slowdown in global air cargo tonnage that began in the latter half of March accelerated in week 14 (March 31 - April 6), according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

"Following a one percent decline the previous week, worldwide air cargo tonnages fell by seven percent week on week (WoW). About half of this was due to a seasonal drop in bookings during the Eid holidays at the end of Ramadan, while the other half reflects worldwide uncertainty over a trade war triggered by the latest wave of U.S. tariffs and the removal of U.S. de minimis exemptions for shipments from China and Hong Kong. Despite the weakening in demand, volumes are still six percent higher than the same week last year."

Worldwide average rates, however, are continuing their upward trend seen since the beginning of March, increasing by two percent WoW and by three percent based on the comparison of the last two weeks with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), the update added. "Compared with the same week last year (YoY), rates are three percent higher, in line with the trend of the last four weeks, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data."

Asia Pacific to US demand softens, rates continue to rise
While demand out of the region has remained fairly robust during the first quarter of 2025 (up three percent YoY), a different trend is likely going forward as global uncertainties seem to start impacting international trade flows, the update added. "Most ominous are the escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China, but frequent changes in the U.S. stance on tariffs have prompted companies to postpone decisions while their inventory levels are high from front-loading until there is some clarity to plan their next moves."

The Lunar New Year holiday aside, week 14 shows a WoW drop in tonnages, ex-China and Hong Kong to the U.S. for the first time since the beginning of the year although volumes are still three percent higher than the same week last year. "Flows from China and Hong Kong to Los Angeles show a more pronounced drop of five percent WoW, now at par with the volumes 12 months ago. Other countries in the Asia Pacific region also saw a significant decline, especially ex-Japan and ex-Taiwan (both down seven percent WoW)."

Despite a weakening demand out of all origin regions, pricing ex-Asia Pacific increased four percent WoW, with the average spot rate out of the region going up five percent to $3.94 per kg, the update added.