Air cargo rates jump as Iran war disrupts capacity and traffic

Global air cargo rates increased sharply in the week ending March 8, 2026, as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted capacity and traffic across several regions, according to the latest weekly analysis from WorldACD Market Data. The temporary loss of airspace and airport capacity in the Middle East pushed average global airfreight rates up 6% week on week to $2.40 per kilogram, 3% higher than a year earlier.

The first full week of the conflict showed that the impact on air cargo traffic extended far beyond the Middle East. Capacity losses from airspace restrictions and airport shutdowns triggered route adjustments and shifts in available capacity. The situation has also raised concerns about further price increases due to higher fuel costs and war risk surcharges, which could create additional pressure on inflation and consumer confidence.

Global airfreight traffic in week 10 fell 4% from the previous week and was 12% lower than the same week last year. With the exception of North America, which recorded a 3% increase in chargeable weight, and Asia Pacific, which rose 5%, all other regions recorded weekly declines. The sharpest drop was from the Middle East and South Asia, where chargeable weight fell 36%, followed by Africa with a 23% decline, Europe with a 7% fall and Central and South America with a 2% drop.

The Middle East was the most severely affected region. Chargeable weight from the Middle East and South Asia fell 36% compared with the previous week, close to the 42% drop in capacity. The Gulf region experienced the biggest disruption, with outbound volumes falling 62% week on week and capacity down 70%. Inbound cargo volumes into the region declined 47%.

Commercial flight operations in Dubai were suspended on March 7 after a drone strike but later resumed on a reduced scale. Cargo volumes from Dubai to the United States and Europe dropped 82% and 38% respectively compared with the previous week. Airlines and freight forwarders responded by shifting operations to alternative gateways such as Saudi Arabia, adding charter capacity and increasing trucking activities in the region.

Cargo flows between Asia and Europe also changed as airlines adjusted routes. While capacity to and from the Gulf region, the Levant and South Asia almost halved compared with the previous week, capacity on direct routes between Asia Pacific and Europe increased significantly. Capacity from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 20% and from South Asia 13%, while capacity in the opposite direction increased 26% and 18% respectively, mainly due to more direct freighter flights.

Tonnage from Asia Pacific to Europe increased 4% week on week, supported by higher volumes from Vietnam, which rose 17%, and China, which increased 14% following the post-Lunar New Year recovery. However, most other Asia Pacific origins recorded lower volumes to Europe.

Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America increased 13% week on week, driven by strong growth from China/Hong Kong, which rose 31%, Vietnam with a 25% increase and Singapore with a 7% rise. Year-on-year comparisons remain complicated by differences in the timing of the Lunar New Year and earlier front-loading of US imports.

The disruption also affected Africa-Europe trade flows, where Gulf-based airlines play a major role. Cargo volumes from Africa fell 23% week on week, with almost half of the decline linked to reduced flows to Europe. East Africa recorded the largest drop on this trade lane.

The reduction in capacity pushed airfreight prices higher. Global spot rates increased 10% week on week and were 13% higher than a year earlier. Contract rates also rose 3% compared with the previous week but were 2% lower year on year.

Central and South America was the only origin region where pricing declined, falling 7%. Rates from North America, Africa, Europe and Asia Pacific all increased slightly. The sharpest rise was recorded in the Middle East and South Asia, where rates jumped 28% week on week and were 20% higher than a year earlier.

Rates from the Middle East and South Asia to Europe surged 57% week on week, including increases of 93% from Sri Lanka and 77% from the UAE. Rates from India rose 50% and from Bangladesh 41%. Prices from the region to the United States increased 22% week on week, with the largest increase recorded from the UAE.

The reduced role of the Middle East as a transit hub also affected pricing from Asia Pacific to Europe. Spot rates on this route rose 10% week on week after a slight decline the previous week. Most Asian origins recorded higher rates, led by Vietnam (+42%), Indonesia (+36%) and Singapore (+31%).

Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the United States rose 1% week on week but were 6% lower year on year. The strongest weekly increases were recorded in Hong Kong (+16%) and Singapore (+15%), while Malaysia (-5%) and Korea (-2%) were the only origins where rates declined.

WorldACD said that unless the conflict ends quickly, airfreight prices are likely to continue rising. Airlines have already announced fare increases in passenger operations following a 58% jump in jet fuel prices week on week, and higher war-risk insurance premiums are also expected to push air cargo rates further upward.