Shippers, forwarders ill-prepared for peak season?

The global air cargo market is heading towards a ‘hot Q4’ of rate increases after a sixth straight month of double-digit growth in June, according to the latest analysis by Xeneta.

However, it also warns that shippers and forwarders are ill-prepared for this year’s peak season may find themselves ‘at the mercy of the market.’

Demand in June, measured in chargeable weight, was +13% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend seen throughout the first half of 2024.

In contrast, cargo supply grew at its slowest pace in 2024, edging up only +3% year-on-year.

As a result, the global air cargo dynamic load factor increased by +4% pts year-on-year.

“June’s growth in demand was not surprising but this is likely the calm before the storm in terms of air freight rates,” said Niall van de Wouw of Xeneta. “I’ve heard already that certain airlines and forwarders are thinking of implementing a peak season surcharge by the end of August.”

There’s a consensus it will be a hot Q4 for air cargo in many Asian markets.

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Shippers and forwarders with capacity agreements in markets that are ‘tight’ already, based on fixed volumes and a peak surcharge, will have reduced risk, while those dependent of the spot market can expect to pay ‘a hefty premium’.

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