Page 31 - STAT August 2022 for Magzter

“The enthusiasm in demand for freight- ies but rather will favour larger variants
ers and cargo solutions, that arrived with
the lockdown, still keeps momentum but
with the restoration of the passenger traf-
fic (that is expected by 2024), the demand
for converted freighters shall drop and
shall be induced by the e-commerce seg-
ment only,” he added.
Stengel also notes that the acceleration
in e-commerce is perhaps the strongest
fundamental demand driver.
“Giants like Amazon are shifting their Announcements
supply chain such that there are more for new conversion
frequent shipments of smaller packages,
which benefits air cargo over ocean programmes will
container shipping. In addition, growing
global e-commerce demand means that slow down and the
regional air cargo networks need to be STC holders will be
built out. These two trends are tailwinds
for narrowbody freighters like the 737NG in execution mode
and A320/321 and medium widebody
freighters like the, 767, and A330,” he said. to achieve their
While discussing the geographies that
will influence these conversions, Tokarev goals.
notes that the African market is significant- Mike Stengel
ly underserved regarding cargo solutions. AeroDynamic Advisory He also thinks that the A321F pro-
“The connection of China with Asian
and European markets still looks very
promising. There are signs of stable de-
mand in South America,” he added.
He also opines that big players in the
market (FedEx, UPS, DHL) will determine
the demand in the mid-term and noted
that “the renewal of their fleets shall be
the major driver of the evolution of the
freighter conversion market.”
It was very recently that the Singapore-
based ST Engineering and its joint venture
with Airbus Elbe Flugzeugwerke (EFW)
redelivered the world’s first A320P2F to its Investment
launch customer Vaayu Group who placed decisions are to
the aircraft on lease to the Indian freighter
operator Pradhaan Air Express. be made now, but
There are a few ways by which Stengel
looks at the aircraft types in the freighter the aircraft shall
conversion market. be converted in
First, “narrowbody programmes like
the B737NG and A320/321 are behind 2-3 years when
most of the increase in conversion vol-
umes,” he notes. the landscape of
In the second point, he opines that the
focus on e-commerce means that plat- the market will be
forms that offer higher cargo volume (not different.
payload) are best-positioned.
“This doesn’t mean everyone will Yuriy Tokarev tially face excess air cargo capacity that
migrate from narrowbodies to widebod- Aerovista
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within a given aircraft class. For example,
e-commerce-oriented operators seeking
narrowbodies will prefer a 737-800 over a
737-700, or an A330-300 over an A330-200
on the widebody side,” he said.
Third, “STCs that have a global pres-
ence and strong network of authorised
conversion providers are best-positioned
to achieve high market share. Affiliation
with the aircraft OEMs also provides an
advantage,” he added.
However, Tokarev expressed his concern
about the over-optimism in the B737-800F
conversion market. “In 2-3 years there will
be a significant drop in demand although
these aircraft replace fleets of retiring
B737-300/400F,” he said.
He also notes that the announcement
of Airbus about launching the program
of OEM-built A350 freighter was a big
surprise for him.
He thinks, “Seems the demand for the
passenger version is not sufficient and
Airbus is trying to stimulate it.”
gramme is very promising as “A321F can
be a decent replacement for the ageing
population of B757 freighters,” he said.
Tokarev wants airlines to be careful
with the estimate for the growth of their
markets.
“Investors should be cautious in making
investment decisions regarding conver-
sions. Investment decisions are to be
made now, but the aircraft shall be con-
verted in 2-3 years when the landscape of
the market will be different,” he reasons.
On the same line, Stengel notes that
there is an emerging consensus that the
record levels of freighter conversions will
not last.
“While we see longer-term tailwinds
that should support a higher baseline of
freighter conversions compared to pre-
Covid, we also expect the number of an-
nual conversions to contract as passenger
jets with belly capacity return to service
in the coming years. In addition, there
are a variety of lessors placing orders for
converted freighters and we are monitor-
ing their ability to place these aircraft with
an operator. If this proves harder than
expected, then the industry could poten-
will need to be corrected,” he adds. 
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